New Seat Details - Walsall and Oscott

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Walsall and Oscott been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
LAB	24,854	53.3%
CON	19,224	41.2%
UKIP	1,565	3.4%
LIB	709	1.5%
Green	130	0.3%
MIN	121	0.3%
OTH	20	0.0%
LAB Majority	5,630	12.1%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Walsall and Oscott: Map

List of old seats forming part of Walsall and Oscott

Old seat: Birmingham Perry Barr

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Birmingham Perry Barr, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Birmingham Perry Barr				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Birmingham	Handsworth Wood	17,301	West Bromwich	2,994	7,878	206	0	147	0	99	17	11,341
Birmingham	Lozells and East Handsworth	17,558	Birmingham Ladywood	1,938	10,311	196	0	170	0	276	46	12,937
Birmingham	Oscott	17,483	Walsall and Oscott	3,924	5,737	250	0	130	0	121	20	10,182
Birmingham	Perry Barr	15,368	Birmingham Erdington and Perry Barr	2,871	6,182	428	0	143	0	96	16	9,736
	Total	67,710		11,727	30,108	1,080	0	590	0	592	99	44,196

The full details of these calculations are given on the Birmingham Perry Barr seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Walsall North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Walsall North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Walsall North				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Walsall	Birchills Leamore	9,516	Walsall and Oscott	2,522	3,394	43	201	0	0	0	0	6,160
Walsall	Blakenall	8,023	Walsall and Oscott	2,357	2,791	30	334	0	0	0	0	5,512
Walsall	Bloxwich East	8,672	Aldridge, Brownhills and Bloxwich	2,481	2,084	46	310	0	0	0	0	4,921
Walsall	Bloxwich West	9,541	Aldridge, Brownhills and Bloxwich	3,035	1,893	57	336	0	0	0	0	5,321
Walsall	Short Heath	8,583	Wolverhampton East and Willenhall	2,602	1,516	139	356	0	0	0	0	4,613
Walsall	Willenhall North	9,275	Wolverhampton East and Willenhall	2,956	1,715	143	374	0	0	0	0	5,188
Walsall	Willenhall South	10,576	Wolverhampton East and Willenhall	2,967	2,925	129	384	0	0	0	0	6,405
	Total	64,186		18,920	16,318	587	2,295	0	0	0	0	38,120

The full details of these calculations are given on the Walsall North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Walsall South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Walsall South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Walsall South				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Walsall	Bentley and Darlaston North	8,927	Darlaston and Tipton	1,914	3,885	82	290	0	0	0	0	6,171
Walsall	Darlaston South	9,210	Darlaston and Tipton	2,124	3,809	78	335	0	0	0	0	6,346
Walsall	Paddock	9,429	Walsall and Oscott	2,992	2,378	87	219	0	0	0	0	5,676
Walsall	Palfrey	9,880	Walsall and Oscott	2,101	4,915	80	295	0	0	0	0	7,391
Walsall	Pheasey Park Farm	8,782	Walsall and Oscott	2,737	1,915	107	244	0	0	0	0	5,003
Walsall	Pleck	8,969	Darlaston and Tipton	1,935	4,659	41	149	0	0	0	0	6,784
Walsall	St Matthew's	9,218	Walsall and Oscott	2,591	3,724	112	272	0	0	0	0	6,699
	Total	64,415		16,394	25,285	587	1,804	0	0	0	0	44,070

The full details of these calculations are given on the Walsall South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Walsall and Oscott

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Walsall and Oscott
Birmingham	Oscott	16,151	Birmingham Perry Barr	3,924	5,737	250	0	130	0	121	20	10,182
Walsall	Birchills Leamore	10,877	Walsall North	2,522	3,394	43	201	0	0	0	0	6,160
Walsall	Blakenall	9,732	Walsall North	2,357	2,791	30	334	0	0	0	0	5,512
Walsall	Paddock	8,683	Walsall South	2,992	2,378	87	219	0	0	0	0	5,676
Walsall	Palfrey	11,307	Walsall South	2,101	4,915	80	295	0	0	0	0	7,391
Walsall	Pheasey Park Farm	7,654	Walsall South	2,737	1,915	107	244	0	0	0	0	5,003
Walsall	St Matthew's	10,248	Walsall South	2,591	3,724	112	272	0	0	0	0	6,699
	Total	74,652		19,224	24,854	709	1,565	130	0	121	20	46,623

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Walsall and Oscott. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Valerie Vaz (LAB)
County/Area:	Black Country (West Midlands)
Electorate:	74,652
Turnout:	62.5%

Walsall and Oscott: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Walsall and Oscott: Overview

Introduction